| 卓玛草,李广,马维伟,王钧,刘强.近45年来甘肃省雨养农业区气候变化的时空特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2021,39(1):200~206 |
| 近45年来甘肃省雨养农业区气候变化的时空特征 |
| Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in rain-fed agricultural area of Gansu Province in recent 45 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.01.26 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 雨养农业区 气温 降水量 时空变化 |
| 英文关键词:climate change rain-fed agricultural area temperature precipitation spatio-temporal variation |
| 基金项目:甘肃省重点研发计划（18YF1NA070）；甘肃省高等学校协同创新团队项目（2018C-16）；甘肃省财政专项（SSCZZ- 20160909）；国家自然科学基金项目(31560378,31560343) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了探索影响雨养农业区农业生产的关键气象要素——气温和降水的变化特征，以甘肃省雨养农业区55个气象站1971—2015年气温和降水实测资料为基础，采用线性倾向率法、空间插值及Mann-Kendall法对研究区气温和降水量的时空变化特征及突变进行了分析。结果表明：近45年来，甘肃省雨养农业区气温呈明显的上升趋势，以0.36℃·10a -1的速率显著增暖，20世纪90年代后进入快速增温阶段，且在1996年发生突变；年降水量总体呈减少趋势，存在强烈波动变化，以-2.57 mm·10a -1的速率缓慢下降，1988年发生突变。从空间分布来看，年均气温总体呈现出由北向南、由西向东递增的规律，气温随海拔升高而降低，而气温倾向率呈现出由北向南、由西向东递减的规律，以甘南高海拔地区增温速率最大，达0.47℃·10a -1；研究区降水量空间变化不规律，呈现出研究区中部地区降水少，四周降水较多的空间格局，降水量随海拔升高而逐渐增大，而降水倾向率自西向东递减，陇东半干旱地区出现降水量小幅度的增加，变化速率为2.54 mm·10a -1，气温及降水变化具有明显的空间差异性。陇东地区呈现暖湿化态势，其他区域整体朝着暖干化方向发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to explore the characteristics of changes of key meteorological factors in temperature and precipitation, which affect agricultural productions in rain-fed agricultural areas, this study used the data of temperature and precipitation from 55 meteorological stations in rain-fed agricultural areas in Gansu Province from 1971 to 2015 as the basis, linear tendency rate method, spatial interpolation, and Mann-Kendall method were used to analyze the spatial and temporal change characteristics and mutation of temperature and precipitation. The results showed that: （1）In recent 45 years, the temperature in rain-fed agricultural area in Gansu Province significantly rose at a rate of 0.36℃·10a-1. After 1990s, the temperature increased rapidly but had a mutation in 1996. The annual precipitation generally showed a decreasing trend, with strong fluctuations, it declined slowly at a rate of -2.57 mm·10a-1 and the mutation of precipitation occurred in 1988. （2）From the perspective of spatial distributions, the mean annual air temperature generally showed an increasing pattern from the north to south and the west to east and the temperature decreased with the elevation, but the temperature tendency rate showed a decreasing trend from the north to south and the west to east, and the highest increasing rate of temperature was in the high altitude areas of Gannan at about 0.47℃·10a-1. The spatial trend of the precipitation varied irregularly, which showed that less precipitation in the central area of the study area and more precipitation in the surrounding area. The precipitation gradually increased with the elevation, but the precipitation tendency rate decreased from the west to east. There was a small precipitation increase in the semi-arid area of Longdong at 2.54 mm·10a-1, the temperature and precipitation showed obvious spatial differences. The Longdong area shows a trend of warming and humidification, while other areas were developing into warming and drying situation as a whole. This study provides a theoretical reference for the system and structure layout of local rain-fed agriculture. |
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