闫英杰,周宏飞,朱薇,姚林林.未来气候变化情景下中亚雨养农业区水土资源匹配格局[J].干旱地区农业研究,2021,39(3):184~193
未来气候变化情景下中亚雨养农业区水土资源匹配格局
Matching patterns of water and land resources in the rain\|fed agricultural region of Central Asia under future climate change scenarios
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.03.23
中文关键词:  气候变化  中亚地区；雨养农业区  水土资源  匹配格局  时空差异  粮食安全
英文关键词:climate change  Central Asia  rain\|fed agricultural region  water and land resources  matching pattern  spatio\|temporal variation  food security
基金项目:中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA2004030202)
作者单位
闫英杰 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
中国科学院阜康荒漠生态试验站,新疆 阜康 831505
中国科学院大学,北京 100049 
周宏飞 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
中国科学院阜康荒漠生态试验站,新疆 阜康 831505 
朱薇 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
中国科学院阜康荒漠生态试验站,新疆 阜康 831505
中国科学院大学,北京 100049 
姚林林 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
中国科学院阜康荒漠生态试验站,新疆 阜康 831505
中国科学院大学,北京 100049 
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中文摘要:
      中亚地区是落实我国“一带一路”发展倡议的关键地区，雨养农业区作为中亚重要粮食主产区，对世界和区域粮食安全具有重要意义。本文基于参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的7个全球气候模式(GCM)，分析了未来30 a(2021—2050年)气候变化情景下中亚雨养农业区降水量的空间分布及其变化趋势；然后根据适宜农作物种植的高程、坡度和土壤类型等条件，识别出雨养农业区宜农耕地分布；采用基于数列匹配度和单位面积水资源量法，预估了未来中亚雨养农业区水土资源匹配格局的时空变化。研究结果表明：(1)未来气候变化情景下，中亚雨养农业区年均降水空间分布自东北向西南降低，东部地区降水呈弱增加趋势，RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下降水增幅分别为1.10 mm·a-1和1.61 mm·a-1，西部呈减少趋势，但不显著；与RCP4.5情景相比，21世纪中期，RCP8.5情景下全年可利用降水量增加了9.8 mm。(2) 宜农耕地资源丰富，空间分布差异相对较小，北部地区以现有耕地为主，南部和东部地区后备耕地资源充足。(3) 在两种RCP情景下，中亚雨养农业区未来30 a水土资源匹配度大部分处于0.6以上，总体处于较好匹配水平，且RCP8.5情景优于RCP4.5；与全年水土匹配相比，生长季水土资源空间匹配极不均衡，东部和北部地区匹配系数大部分处于0.84以上，而南部和西部地区均低于0.70。总体上，未来气候变化将对中亚雨养农业区粮食生产产生双重影响，本文也提出提升应对气候变化能力的相关措施。
英文摘要:
      Central Asia is a key region for the implementation of the One Belt and One RoadInitiative. As the main grain product area in Central Asia. The rain\|fed agricultural region is of great significance to world and regional food security. Based on the five global climatemodels (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5),this paper analyzes the spatio\|temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation in the year and growth period during 2021-2050 under the RCPs scenarios. According to the filter conditions, which were suitable for crop cultivation, the spatial distribution of land suitable for farming was retrieved from four indexes including DEM, slope, land types, and land\|use types. The spatio\|temporal distribution characteristics of water\|land resources during 2021-2050 under the RCPs scenario were evaluated using the method of matching degree based on data sequence and water resource per unit area. The results showed that: (1)The annual mean precipita\|tion will decrease from the northeast to southwest. The eastern precipitation will increase, while it will decrease in the west and the trend will not be statistically significant. The increasing rate of annual precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario will be 1.61 mm·a-1, compared with 1.10 mm·a-1 under the RCP4.5 scenario. By the middle of this century, annual utilizable precipitation in RCP8.5 would be more than that in RCP4.5. (2) The land suitable for farming are abundant, but its spatial distribution difference will be relatively small,the northern region will be dominated by the existing cultivated land, while the southern and eastern regions will have sufficient reserve arable land resources. (3) The matching degree of water resource with land suitable for farming will be mostly above 0.6, generally at a good matching level, and RCP8.5>RCP4.5. Meanwhile, the matching in the growth period will be uneven, which in eastern and northern regions will be above 0.84, while in western and southern regions will be less than 0.70. As a whole, future climate change will have a double impact on grain production of Central Asia’s rain\|fed agricultural areas. This paper also puts forward some relevant measures to improve the ability to cope with climate change.
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