| 商东耀,张志红,岳元,胡程达,王琪.基于标准化降水指数的河南省近45年干旱时空特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2021,39(4):162~170 |
| 基于标准化降水指数的河南省近45年干旱时空特征分析 |
| Drought characteristics analysis of Henan Province based on standardized precipitation index in recent 45 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.04.21 |
| 中文关键词: 干旱等级 干旱强度 标准化降水指数 河南省 |
| 英文关键词:drought grade drought intensity Henan Province standardized precipitation index |
| 基金项目:中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放基金(AMF201705) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 依据河南省45个气象站近45年逐月降水资料，以标准化降水指数作为干旱指标，详细分析河南省范围内干旱强度、影响范围、发生频率的时空演变规律。结果表明：（1）在过去45 a中河南省干旱具有明显的周期性且近年来有增强的趋势;从干旱发生站次比上来看，年尺度干旱站次比呈阶段性先增后减的变化趋势，且在全省范围内多发全域性、局域性干旱，分别为11、12 a; 春季、夏季、秋季三季干旱站次比呈现上升趋势，上升率分别为1%·10a-1、5.5%·10a-1、9.6%·10a-1，其中，夏旱多为区域性干旱，春、秋两季多为全域性干旱，分别为13、12 a。（2）全省平均干旱频率为9.83%，秋季干旱频率高于其他三个季节，为17.53%; 河南省东部商丘地区、西部三门峡地区是年、季尺度干旱高发地区，年尺度干旱强度与干旱站次比在时间上变化规律一致，都存在2~6 a的周期性。（3）年尺度干旱强度呈现增强趋势，20世纪90年代干旱强度最高，不同季节中干旱强度都表现为增强的趋势，为此河南省未来发生全域性干旱的风险依然很高。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study was toanalyze temporal and spatial evolution law of drought intensity, influence range and occurrence frequency within Henan Province based on monthly precipitation data of 45 meteorological stations during the last 45 years in Henan Province. The standardized precipitation index was adopted as the drought index. The analysis results showed that: (1) In the past 45a, the drought in Henan Province had an obvious periodicity and an increasing trend in recent years. From the perspective of station order ratio, the annual drought station order ratio showed the change form of increasing first and then decreasing in stages.There were more regional and local droughts within the whole province, which were 11 a and 12 a respectively. In spring, summer and autumn, the sub\|ratios of drought stations showed a rising trend, with the rising rates being 1%·10a-1, 5.5%·10a-1 and 9.6%·10a-1, respectively. Of which summer drought was mostly locally, while spring and autumn were mostly dry in entire region, which were 13 a and 12 a respectively. (2) The average frequency of drought in the province was 9.83%, and the frequency of drought in autumn was 17.53%, which was higher than that of other three seasons. The Shangqiu area in the east and Sanmenxia area in the west of Henan Province were the areas with high incidence of annual and seasonal drought. The annual scale drought intensity and the drought station sub\|ratio were consistent in time, and both had 2\|6\|year periodicity. (3) The annual scale drought intensity showed an increasing trend, and the drought intensity value was the highest in the 1990s, and the drought intensity in different seasons showed an increasing trend. Therefore, the risk of regional drought in Henan Province in the future is still high. |
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