| 陈思名,霍艾迪,张丹,陈四宾,赵志欣,陈建.典型脆弱区干旱灾害风险评估关键技术研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2022,40(2):197~204 |
| 典型脆弱区干旱灾害风险评估关键技术研究 |
| Key technologies for drought disaster risk assessment in typical vulnerable areas of eastern Gansu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2022.02.24 |
| 中文关键词: 干旱灾害 致灾因子 风险评估 典型脆弱区 |
| 英文关键词:drought disaster disaster\|causing factors risk assessment typical vulnerable areas |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大项目（41790444/D0214）； 国家自然科学基金面上项目（41877232）；中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）（XDA20030302） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于对黄土塬区旱灾风险成因的深入分析，选取“灾害胁迫—社会脆弱性—暴露”的自然灾害风险评价体系及相应的遥感数据和社会经济数据作为干旱灾害风险数据源，通过层次分析法构建旱灾风险评估模型，并运用GIS技术分别对3项指标因子进行空间叠加分析，最后利用自然断点法对庆阳地区旱灾风险进行等级划分与评估。计算结果表明：（1）整体而言，庆阳地区干旱灾害风险有显著的空间差异，呈“北高南低、西高东低”的特点，这主要是由于降雨时空分布不均造成的。（2）庆阳地区高、次高、中、次低、低风险等级面积分别占研究区总面积的11.30％、24.90％、30.96％、18.54％、14.3％。（3）高风险区主要集中在环县北部以及庆阳市中心地区；次高风险区主要分布在环县中部、华池县北部以及镇原县北部地区；中风险区主要分布在镇原县南部、庆城县南部、华池县南部、正宁县西部以及宁县南部地区；次低风险区主要分布在宁县东部以及合水县南部；低风险区主要集中在庆阳市东部，即华池县东南部、合水县东部、宁县东部以及正宁县大部分地区。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on causes analysis of the drought risk in East Gansu, this paper used the natural disaster risk assessment system of “Hazard-Vulnerability-Exposure”, the corresponding remote sensing data and social and economic data as the data source for drought disaster risk assessment. Drought risk assessment model was established and analyzed by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the three index factors were analyzed by GIS spatial overlay analysis. Finally, the classification and regionalization of drought disaster risk in East Gansu were carried out by the Natural Breakpoint Method. The results indicated that: (1) On the whole, the spatial difference of the drought risk in Qingyang area was significant, showing the characteristics of high in the north and low in the south, and high in the west and low in the east which was mainly due to the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. (2) The area of very high, high, medium, low and very low level of drought disaster risk accounted for 11.30％、24.90％、30.96％、18.54％ and 14.3％ in East Gansu, respectively. (3) The very high\|risk areas were mainly concentrated in northern of Huan County and the central area of Qingyang city. The high\|risk areas were mainly distributed in the middle of Huan County, northern of Huachi County and north of Zhenyuan County. The medium\|risk areas were mainly distributed in south of Zhenyuan County, southern of Qingcheng County, southern of Huachi County, west of Zhengning County and south of Ning County. The low\|risk areas were mainly located in east of Ning County and south of Heshui County. The very low\|risk areas were mainly concentrated in east of Qingyang City, including southeast of Huachi County, east of Heshui County, east of Ning County and most areas of Zhengning County. |
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