| 刘晔,薛万来.黄河流域农业干旱时空演变规律及其自然恢复期特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2022,40(2):213~221 |
| 黄河流域农业干旱时空演变规律及其自然恢复期特征 |
| Temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural drought and its natural recovery period in the Yellow River Basin |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2022.02.26 |
| 中文关键词: 农业干旱 干旱恢复时间 空间异质性 黄河流域 |
| 英文关键词:agricultural drought drought recovery time spatial heterogeneity Yellow River Basin |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以黄河流域为例，基于1970—2014年气候数据，构建了修正的帕默尔干旱指数（sc_PDSI），探究了不同气候区农业干旱的时空演变规律；其次，以0.25°×0.25°栅格为响应单元，耦合农业干旱诊断和陆地水储量数据精准识别了农业干旱自然恢复期，并利用全局和局部Moran’s I指数，探明了农业干旱自然恢复期的空间分布格局。结果表明：（1）黄河上游农业干旱化程度得以缓解，而下游干旱化程度加剧，且21世纪初期尤为凸显；（2）黄河流域农业干旱恢复时间介于1??36个月，干旱恢复时间小于4个月对应的栅格数占整个黄河流域的42.68%，反之，大于4个月的响应单元面积比重为57.32%；（3）农业干旱恢复时间在空间上存在显著的空间自相关性，且在99%置信水平下显著。研究结果可为流域水管理机构旱涝保收工作的顺利开展提供理论依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Frequent and widespread agricultural drought events seriously restrict the ecological protection and high\|quality development of the Yellow River Basin, and threaten the safety of food production. This study took the Yellow River Basin as an example, and constructed a modified Palmer Drought Index (sc_PDSI) to clarify the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural drought events in different climatic regions based on the CRU climate data from 1970 to 2014. In addition, taking 0.25°×0.25° grid as response unit, the natural recovery period of agricultural drought accurately identified by coupling agricultural drought diagnosis and the land water storage data and spatial distribution pattern of natural recovery period of agricultural drought was explored by using global and local Moran’s I index. The results showed that the degree of agricultural aridity in the upper reaches of the Yellow River had been alleviated, while that in the lower reaches had been intensified, especially in the early 21st century. Meanwhile, the recovery time of agricultural drought in the Yellow River Basin was between 1 month and 36 months. The number of grids corresponding to drought recovery time less than 4 months accounted for 42.68% of the whole Yellow River Basin. On the contrary, the proportion of response unit area greater than 4 months was 57.32%. There was significant spatial autocorrelation in the recovery time of agricultural drought, and it passed the significance test of 99% confidence level. The findings from the study provide some reference for water management institutions in flood control and drought relief to ensure proper development of crops in the Yellow River Basin. |
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