申燕玲,赵梦凡,赵彤,沈晓燕.青海省春小麦和油菜播种期气象条件分析及预测模型构建[J].干旱地区农业研究,2022,40(6):232~241
青海省春小麦和油菜播种期气象条件分析及预测模型构建
Study on meteorological conditions and prediction models of sowing date for spring wheat and rape in Qinghai Province
  
DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2022.06.25
中文关键词:  春小麦  油菜  气象要素  模型构建  青海省
英文关键词:spring wheat  rape  meteorological elements  model construction  Qinghai Province
基金项目:2022年青海省气象科学技术重点科研项目(QXZD2022-15)
作者单位
申燕玲 青海省气象科学研究所青海 西宁 810001青海省防灾减灾重点实验室青海 西宁 810001 
赵梦凡 青海省气象科学研究所青海 西宁 810001青海省防灾减灾重点实验室青海 西宁 810001 
赵彤 青海省气象科学研究所青海 西宁 810001青海省防灾减灾重点实验室青海 西宁 810001 
沈晓燕 青海省气象科学研究所青海 西宁 810001青海省防灾减灾重点实验室青海 西宁 810001 
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中文摘要:
      利用1961―2019年青海省春小麦和油菜农业气象观测站发育期及气象要素数据,采用统计学方法对播种期相关气象要素进行分析。结果表明:与春小麦和油菜播种期相关的气象条件中,日平均气温和地温的增温趋势较为明显,分别以0.40℃·10a-1和0.44℃·10a-1的速度增加;相对湿度在2004年之后呈缓慢降低趋势(-0.57%·10a-1);地温和气温对播种的影响最大;气温稳定通过0℃、3℃和6℃以及地温稳定通过0℃、6℃和10℃的初日在空间分布上受海拔影响,整体呈现“东南早、西北晚”的分布特征;春小麦和油菜稳定通过0℃、3℃以及地温稳定通过0℃初日提前的趋势较为明显。根据气温、地温稳定通过界限温度初日统计法建立的模型与播种期相关性较高,可为春小麦和油菜播种期预告提供依据。
英文摘要:
      Based on the meteorological data of spring wheat and rape observation stations in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2019, meteorological elements were analyzed through the statistical methods. The results showed that in the meteorological conditions related to the crop planting period, the temperature and the average ground temperature increased obviously at a rate of 0.4 ℃·10a-1 and 0.44 ℃·10a-1, and the relative humidity decreased slowly after 2004 (-0.57%·10a-1). Among the meteorological elements related to the sowing period, the ground temperature and air temperature were the important elements. The temperature at which the temperature stably increasing above 0℃, 3℃, 6℃ and the ground temperature stably increasing above 0℃, 6℃, 10℃ was affected by altitude in spatial distribution. In general, it had the distribution characteristics of “southeast early and northwest late”. The crops in various regions stably increased above 0℃ and 3℃, and the ground temperature stably increased above 0℃. The trend of early day advance was more obvious. According to the stable temperature, the temperature stably increased above 0℃, 3℃, the ground temperature passed steadily. The model established based on the first day of temperature and ground temperature had a good verification result, which can provide a scientific basis for agricultural meteorological services.
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