| 刘欢,宋孝玉,李磊,晁智龙.中国31省（市、自治区）水资源承载力评价及预测研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2023,(4):226~237 |
| 中国31省（市、自治区）水资源承载力评价及预测研究 |
| Evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2023.04.24 |
| 中文关键词: 水资源承载力 TOPSIS模型 障碍因子 BP神经网络 中国31省（市、自治区） |
| 英文关键词:water resources carrying capacity TOPSIS model obstacle factors BP neural network 31 provinces, municipalites and autonomous regions of China |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41771259) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为评价我国省级水资源承载状况，基于水资源-社会-经济-生态环境4个子系统构建指标体系，采用层次分析法和熵权法组合赋权的TOPSIS模型对中国31省（市、自治区）2010—2019年的水资源承载力进行综合评价，运用M-K检验法分析了其时空变化特征，并对评价结果进行障碍因子诊断，在此基础上采用BP神经网络预测出各省（市、自治区）2020—2025年的水资源承载力。结果表明：（1）中国31省（市、自治区）水资源承载力呈现波动提升趋势，整体处于临界承载状态；（2）我国水资源承载力具有显著的地区分异规律，西南、华南、东北地区承载力较好，华北和西北最弱；（3）研究期内，水资源承载力在西北和东北地区表现为恶化，华南、华北部分地区也出现恶化情形，而华东、华中和西南大部分地区均有所改善；（4）产水模数、农用化肥使用量、人均水资源量、供水模数、人均综合用水量、废水排放总量和水资源开发利用率是对我国水资源承载力影响作用最强的7个障碍因子，且影响强度依次递减；（5）水资源承载力未来将在全国多数地区逐渐改善，而山东、河南、辽宁可能形成重度恶化区。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To evaluate the carrying capacity of provincial water resources in China, an index system was established based on four subsystems of water resources\|society\|economy\|ecological environment. The TOPSIS model weighted by the combination of AHP and entropy method was used to comprehensively evaluate water resources carrying capacity of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2010 to 2019, The model’s temporal and spatial variation characteristics were analyzed combining with the M-K trend method. The obstacle factor diagnosis was carried out on the evaluation results. On this basis, BP neural network was used to predict the water resources carrying capacity of each province (municipality, autonomous region) from 2020 to 2025. The results showed that: (1) The water resources carrying capacity in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China showed a fluctuating upward trend and the overall state was in a critical carrying state. (2) The water resources carrying capacity in the country had significant regional differentiation pattern, with better carrying capacity in Southwest, South China, and Northeast China, and the weakest in North China and Northwest China. (3) During the study period, the water resources carrying capacity deteriorated in Northwest and Northeast regions, and some areas in South China and North China also deteriorated, while most areas in East China, Central China and Southwest China improved. (4) Water production modulus, consumption of agricultural chemical fertilizer, water resources per capita, water supply modulus, comprehensive water consumption per capita, total wastewater discharge, water resources development and utilization ratio were seven obstacle factors that had the strongest influence on water resources carrying capacity in China, and the influence intensity decreased in turn. (5) In the future, the water resources carrying capacity will be gradually improved in most parts of the country, Shandong, Henan and Liaoning may form severe deterioration areas. |
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