| 李鑫龙,谭军利,董立霞,王西娜.宁夏春小麦干热风变化特征与影响因素分析及预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2023,(5):283~292 |
| 宁夏春小麦干热风变化特征与影响因素分析及预测 |
| Analysis and prediction of influencing factors of spring wheat dry\|hot wind disaster in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2023.05.30 |
| 中文关键词: 春小麦 干热风 变化特征 影响因素 宁夏 |
| 英文关键词:spring wheat dry\|hot wind change characteristics influencing factors Ningxia |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFD0200405）；宁夏自然科学基金（2022AAC02013）；国家自然科学基金（31860590）；宁夏高等学校一流学科建设（水利工程）项目（NXYLXK2021A03） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过分析宁夏回族自治区12个气象站1980—2019年气象数据，对干热风进行评判，探讨了宁夏春小麦种植区干热风的时空变化规律及气象因子对干热风的影响规律。结果表明，通过M-K检验法发现宁夏地区近40年间干热风天数总体呈显著上升态势，但地区之间存在差异：中宁、中卫、银川、同心、惠农地区干热风天数总体呈上升的趋势，而吴忠、陶乐、盐池地区干热风天数近些年有逐步减少的趋势。从干热风发生的空间分布来看，干热风影响范围逐渐扩大，重心有南移的趋势，同时海拔对干热风的发生有显著影响；通过Pearson’s相关分析看出，高温低湿型干热风受日最高气温影响最大，其次是相对湿度，风速影响相对较小；而雨后青枯型干热风受温度变化影响最大，其次是降水量。构建了基于气象因子的全区和各个农业生态区干热风天数回归方程，其预测结果可信度较高。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| By analyzing the meteorological data of the 12 meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 1980 to 2019, the dry\|hot wind was evaluated, and the temporal and spatial variation of the dry\|hot wind in the spring wheat planting area of Ningxia and the influence of meteorological factors on the dry\|hot wind were discussed. The results showed that the M-K test method shows that the number of dry-hot wind days in Ningxia has increased significantly in the past 40 years; however, there were differences between regions. The number of dry\|hot wind days in Wuzhong, Taole and Yanchi areas had decreased in recent years. From the perspective of the spatial distribution of the occurrence of dry-hot wind, the influence range of the dry-hot wind was gradually expanding, the center of gravity had a tendency to move south, and the altitude had a significant impact on the occurrence of the dry-hot wind; through Pearson’s correlation analysis, it can be seen that the high temperature and low humidity type dry-hot wind was affected by the highest daily temperature had the greatest impact, followed by relative humidity, and wind speed had a relatively small impact. After rain, the dry-hot wind of dry-hot wilt type was most affected by temperature changes, followed by precipitation. Based on meteorological factors, the number of dry-hot wind days in the whole region and each agro\|ecological region was constructed. The results from the prediction model had high reliability. |
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