| 申曼华,黄领梅,余小波,申奥,史荣情,李佳.基于ERA-5数据集的陕西省气象-水文干旱传播与响应研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,(1):258~266 |
| 基于ERA-5数据集的陕西省气象-水文干旱传播与响应研究 |
| Meteorological\|hydrological drought propagation and response in Shaanxi Province based on ERA-5 dataset |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.01.27 |
| 中文关键词: 气象干旱 水文干旱 传播 响应时间 陕西省 |
| 英文关键词:meteorological drought hydrological drought propagation response time Shaanxi Province |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（52179024） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于ERA-5陆地再分析月尺度降水和径流数据，计算陕西省1952—2022年标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化径流指数（SRI），结合M-K检验、游程理论和皮尔逊相关系数，揭示气象-水文干旱的传播与响应特征。结果表明：（1）陕西省气象干旱发生的次数高于水文干旱，两者的发生频次在空间上有显著差异，陕北多发气象干旱，关中中东部和陕南南部多发水文干旱。（2）陕西省SPI3和SRI3整体呈逐年下降趋势，SPI3和SRI3的持续性在时空分布中有显著差异，SPI3的Hurst指数变化幅度较小，持续性弱；SRI3变化幅度大，且陕北持续性最强，关中次之，陕南最弱。（3）陕北的气象-水文干旱传播率最低，关中地区次之，陕南最高；在发生气象轻旱和特旱时，最大可能会紧接着发生同等级的水文干旱。（4）空间上，陕西省气象-水文干旱响应时间以秦岭为分界线，秦岭以南响应迅速，以北响应迟钝；时间上，夏季最敏感，响应最快，春季响应最慢；陕北北部高海拔地区的气象-水文相关性最弱，全年小于0.5。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using ERA-5 land reanalysis monthly\|scale precipitation and runoff data, we calculated the standardized precipitation index (SPI3) and standardized runoff index (SRI) for Shaanxi Province from 1952 to 2022. To analyze the propagation and response characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts, we employed the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, run theory, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The results showed that: (1) Meteorological droughts occurred more frequently than hydrological droughts in Shaanxi Province, and there was a significant spatial difference in the frequency of the two, with more meteorological droughts occurring in northern Shaanxi, and more hydrological droughts occurring in central and eastern Guanzhong, and southern Shaanxi. (2) SPI3 and SRI3 in Shaanxi Province as a whole exhibited a decreasing trend over the years, with significant spatial and temporal differences in their persistence. The Hurst index of SPI3 showed minimal changes and weak persistence, while SRI3 demonstrated larger changes. Persistence was strongest in northern Shaanxi, moderate in Guanzhong, and weakest in southern Shaanxi. (3) The meteorological\|hydrological drought propagation rate of northern Shaanxi was the lowest, Guanzhong was the second highest, and southern Shaanxi was the highest. In the occurrence of meteorological light drought and extreme drought, the maximum possibility of hydrological drought of the same level occurred immediately. (4) Spatially, the meteorological\|hydrological drought response time in Shaanxi Province was divided by the Qinling Mountains, with a faster response in the south and a slower response in the north. Temporally, summer exhibited the highest sensitivity and the quickest response, while spring showed the slowest response. The meteorological\|hydrological correlation was weakest in the high\|elevation areas of northern Shaanxi Province, remaining below 0.5 throughout the year. |
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