| 赵秀兰,吕厚荃.近60年黄淮海夏玉米光温水资源适宜度及灾害风险演变特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,(3):210~219 |
| 近60年黄淮海夏玉米光温水资源适宜度及灾害风险演变特征 |
| Evolution of light, temperature, and water resource suitability and disaster risks for summer maize in the Huang\|Huai\|Hai region over the past 60 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.03.22 |
| 中文关键词: 夏玉米 气候适宜度 农业气象灾害指数 黄淮海地区 |
| 英文关键词:summer maize climate suitability agrometeorological disaster index Huang\|Huai\|Hai region |
| 基金项目:国家气象中心2024年度气象高质量发展专项（QXGZL2024）；科技部公益性气象行业专项（GYHY201106020） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探索气候变化对北方夏玉米气候适宜性及灾害的影响，基于1961—2020年黄淮海地区84个气象站逐日气象要素、56个农业气象观测站夏玉米生育时期观测资料，分析黄淮海地区光温水资源演变特征，建立黄淮海夏玉米气候适宜度模型、灾害风险指数模型并对其年际变化特征进行分析。结果表明：近60年黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季热量资源呈明显增加趋势，降水和光照资源均呈波动减少趋势。夏玉米全生育期气候适宜度总体呈平稳上升、后期略有下降的波动趋势，阶段性特征突出，其中1987—2000年持续上升达13 a；温度适宜度总体呈稳定的波动上升趋势，水分适宜度和光照适宜度总体均为前期波动上升、中期平稳、后期波动下降的趋势。不同生育时期光温水及气候适宜度年际趋势存在一定差异且适宜性和灾害风险年代特征明显。温度适宜度1970s最差，低温灾害等风险最高，而2010s达到最高值83.7，为各年代最好；1960s和2010s水分适宜度为各年代最差，旱涝灾害风险最高，而1980s和2000s均为最好。1960s气候适宜度为71.8，为各年代最差；1990s最好，达到最高值75.7，农业气象灾害风险最低。成熟期遭受各种农业气象灾害风险最高，其次为播种出苗期；抽雄吐丝期气候适宜性在全生育期中最好，灾害风险最低。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the impacts of climate change on climate suitability and the risk of agrometeorological disasters for summer maize, we established a climate suitability index model and a risk index model based on daily meteorological data from 84 meteorological stations and summer maize growth period observations from 56 agricultural meteorological stations in the Huang\|Huai\|Hai region from 1961 to 2020. The results showed that over the past 60 years, during the entire growth period of summer maize in the Huang\|Huai\|Hai region, heat resources exhibited a significant increasing trend, while precipitation and light resources showed a fluctuating decline. From 1961 to 2020, the climate suitability of summer maize in the region generally increased throughout most of the growth period but showed a slight decline in the later stages. Notably, a continuous increase was observed over a 13\|year period from 1987 to 2000, demonstrating distinct phase characteristics. The temperature suitability throughout the entire growth period exhibited a generally stable upward trend with fluctuations, while water and light suitability showed an initial increase, remained stable in the middle stages, and declined in the later stages from 1961 to 2020. The interannual trends of light, temperature, water, and overall climate suitability varied across different growth stages, with distinct patterns of suitability and disaster risk. The 1970s experienced the worst temperature suitability, with the highest risk of low\|temperature disasters, whereas the 2010s recorded the best temperature suitability at 83.7. Water suitability was at its lowest in the 1960s and 2010s but significantly improved in the 1980s and 2000s. Across all decades, climate suitability was the poorest in the 1960s at 71.8 and reached its highest at 75.7 in the 1990s, which also had the lowest risk of agrometeorological disasters. Among different growth stages, the risk of agrometeorological disasters was highest at the mature stage, followed by the seedling stage, and lowest at the tasseling and silking stages, which had the best climate suitability throughout the entire growth period. |
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