| 陈珍,蔡朝朝,马楠,戴硕,王震鲁.四种常见气象干旱指数在新疆的适宜性评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,(3):260~269 |
| 四种常见气象干旱指数在新疆的适宜性评估 |
| Suitability assessment of four common meteorological drought indices in Xinjiang |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.03.26 |
| 中文关键词: 气象干旱指数 适用性分析 土壤湿度 河川径流量 陆地水储量 新疆地区 |
| 英文关键词:meteorological drought index applicability analysis soil moisture river runoff terrestrial water storage Xinjiang region |
| 基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目（2022D01A81） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用新疆地区2001—2022年间的4种常用气象干旱指数(SPI、SPEI、PDSI、SC-PDSI)，通过其与土壤湿度、河川径流量和陆地水储量变化量的相关性分析，以及对历史典型干旱时间的响应能力，同时利用Mann-Kendall突变检验、趋势分析等方法，对四种指数的时空差异进行分析，评估各指数在新疆地区的适宜性。结果表明：（1）PDSI指数与土壤湿度、河川径流量呈现出最强的相关性，与陆地水储量变化量的相关性仅次于SC-PDSI；在典型干旱事件反映上，PDSI指数表现最优。（2）新疆整体正处于湿润状态；在时间序列上，四种干旱指数均反映出研究时段内新疆地区轻微变干的趋势(趋势值均在-0.01左右)，干湿突变点出现的时间和数量也各不相同。（3）整体来看，在空间分布上，新疆北部、中部和中南部的干旱程度高于新疆西部和东部部分地区；相比PDSI的描述情况，SC-PDSI指数较其他三种干旱指数表现出较大的趋势率变化幅度(趋势率范围为-0.3054~0.3237)，对干湿变化幅度描述过重、SPI描述过轻、SPEI描述情况相近。总体而言，PDSI指数在新疆地区的适宜性最优。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Four commonly used meteorological drought indices (SPI, SPEI, PDSI, and SC-PDSI) were applied to Xinjiang from 2001 to 2022 to analyze their correlation with soil moisture, river runoff, and terrestrial water storage, as well as their responsiveness to historically significant drought periods. Additionally, the Mann-Kendall mutation test and trend analysis were employed to assess the spatial and temporal variations of the four indices and evaluate their suitability for drought monitoring in Xinjiang. The results showed that: (1) The PDSI index showed the strongest correlation with soil moisture and river runoff, and the correlation with the change of terrestrial water storage was second only to SC-PDSI. In the reflection of typical drought events, the PDSI index performed best. (2) Overall, Xinjiang was in a wet state. Over the time series, all four drought indices indicate a slight drying trend during the study period (with trend values around -0.01), and the timing and frequency of dry and wet mutation points varied. (3)On the whole, in terms of spatial distribution, the degree of drought in northern, central and south\|central Xinjiang was higher than that in western and eastern parts of Xinjiang. Compared with the PDSI, the SC-PDSI showed a wider range of trend rate changes (from -0.3054 to 0.3237) than the other three drought indices. Its representation of dry and wet conditions was overly exaggerated, whereas the SPI tended to understate these changes. The SPEI showed a similar pattern to the PDSI. Overall, the PDSI proved to be more suitable for assessing drought conditions in Xinjiang than the other three indices. |
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