| 刘泽渊,魏有海,侯璐,郭良芝,程亮,李跃,杨振扬,付贞桢.基于Biomod2组合模型对气候变化下青藏高原密花香薷适生区的预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,(3):278~286 |
| 基于Biomod2组合模型对气候变化下青藏高原密花香薷适生区的预测 |
| Predicting suitable habitats for Elsholtzia densa on the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau under climate change using the Biomod2 model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.03.28 |
| 中文关键词: 密花香薷 适生区 气候变化 Biomod2组合模型 青藏高原 |
| 英文关键词:Elsholtzia densa suitable area climate change biomod2 combinatorial modeling Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau |
| 基金项目:青海省科学技术厅重点研发与转化计划（2024-NK-111）;国家科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0303) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 密花香薷(Elsholtzia densa)是青藏高原农田的主要恶性杂草之一，为探究其对农作物的潜在威胁和在未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区，使用Biomod2平台提供的10种算法将其组合成一个模型，对影响密花香薷适宜分布的环境变量进行评价分析，预测其当前和未来气候变化背景下的适生区变化和质心转移。结果表明：影响密花香薷分布的主要环境因子是最暖月份的最高温度，当前气候条件下其分布范围在青海、甘肃、四川、云南和西藏等地，总面积为1.044×106 km2，占青藏高原总面积的40.94%。基于气候变化大背景下的预测结果显示，密花香薷在青藏高原的适生区面积明显扩张，在高海拔地区将有更高的生存和繁衍能力，其质心预计将向西北方向迁移。密花香薷入侵严重威胁农作物的产量和品质，需要采取有效的防治策略加以控制，并加强监测其发生和扩散区域，对靶制定高效的防控策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Elsholtzia densa is one of the major malignant weeds in agricultural fields on the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, and in order to explore its potential threat to crops and potential distribution areas under future climate change scenarios, this study used 10 algorithms provided by the Biomod2 platform combined into a single model to evaluate and analyze environmental variables affecting Elsholtzia densa’s fitness for distribution, and to predict the changes in suitable areas and center\|of\|mass transfer in the context of current and future climate change. The results showed that the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of Elsholtzia densa was the maximum temperature of the warmest month, and that it was distributed in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) under the current climatic conditions, with a total area of 1.044×106 km2, which accounted for 40.94% of the total area of the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau. Predictions based on the context of climate change indicate that Elsholtzia densa has significantly expanded its habitat on the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, demonstrating a greater ability to survive and reproduce at higher altitudes. Its center of mass is expected to shift northwestward. The invasion of Elsholtzia densa poses a serious threat to crop yield and quality, necessitating effective control measures. Strengthened monitoring of its occurrence and spread, along with the development of efficient prevention and management strategies, is essential for mitigating its impact. |
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