| 李晓鹏,李昱鹏,李援农,李彤.甘肃内陆河流域水足迹时空演变特征及驱动力分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,(4):219~229 |
| 甘肃内陆河流域水足迹时空演变特征及驱动力分析 |
| Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of water footprint in inland river basins of Gansu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.04.23 |
| 中文关键词: 水足迹 时空分布 重心迁移 驱动力 甘肃内陆河流域 |
| 英文关键词:water footprint temporal and spatial distribution center of gravity transfer driving force inland river basin of Gansu Province |
| 基金项目:甘肃省教育厅青年博士支持项目（2025QB-055）；甘肃省科技计划项目（自然科学基金）（24JRRA1003）；甘肃省陇原青年人才创新创业项目（2021LQGR59）；甘肃省科技计划项目（自然科学基金）（20JR5RA202） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 甘肃内陆河流域是西北乃至全国的重要生态安全屏障，评估其水资源利用状况，探究水资源利用与经济发展之间的矛盾对该区域水资源可持续利用至关重要。采用水足迹法对2009—2023年甘肃内陆河流域水足迹进行核算，评价水资源压力水平，使用IPAT-LMDI模型定量分析水足迹变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明，2009—2023年甘肃内陆河流域总水足迹整体上呈现升高趋势，年均9.791×109 m3，平均每年增加4.16×108 m3。其中，农业水足迹、生态水足迹、生活水足迹、城镇公共水足迹和出口水足迹均呈现升高趋势，工业水足迹和进口水足迹呈下降趋势。农业水足迹年均7.863×109 m3，在各类水足迹中占比最高（80.31%），呈波动上升趋势，但农业水足迹强度整体呈现明显下降趋势。近15年来，在农业水足迹中，粮食水足迹为3.545×109 m3，占比最大（45.09%）。甘肃内陆河流域水资源面临较大使用压力，人均水足迹高于全国平均水平，且呈现逐年上升趋势；水足迹压力指数较高（1.20），水资源经济效益（年均32.08元·m-3）整体偏低。总水足迹及农业水足迹的重心向西北分别移动20.41、15.23 km，重心移动轨迹始终在山丹县和民乐县内，未发生较大规模结构性变化。甘肃内陆河流域水足迹变化驱动因素中，经济效应的拉动作用明显，经济效应的贡献值较高（均值为3.2168×1010 m3），技术效应、人口效应表现为抑制效应（均值分别为-1.395×109、-2.680×109 m3）。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The inland river basins of Gansu Province are important ecological security barriers for the northwest and even the whole country. It is crucial for the sustainable utilization of water resources in this region so as to evaluate the water resource utilization status and explore the contradiction between water resource utilization and economic development. The water footprint method was applied to calculate the water footprint of inland river basins of Gansu Province from 2009 to 2023. The level of water resource pressure was evaluated. The main driving factors of water footprint changes were quantitatively analyzed using the IPAT-LMDI model. The results showed that the total water footprint of the watershed showed an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2023, with an average annual volume of 9.791 billion cubic meters and an average annual increase of 416 million cubic meters. Among them, agricultural water footprint, ecological water footprint, domestic water footprint, urban public water footprint, and export water footprint all showed an upward trend, while industrial water footprint and import water footprint showed a downward trend. The average annual agricultural water footprint was 7.863 billion cubic meters, accounting for the highest proportion (80.31%) among all types of water footprints, showing a fluctuating upward trend. But the overall intensity of agricultural water footprint showed a significant downward trend. In the past 15 years, in terms of agricultural water footprint, the grain water footprint was 3.545 billion cubic meters, accounting for the largest proportion (45.09%). The water resources in the inland river basins of Gansu Province were facing significant usage pressure. The per capita water footprint was higher than the national average and showed an upward trend annually. The water footprint pressure index (1.20) was relatively high, while the overall economic benefits of water resources (annual average was 32.08 CNY·m-3) were relatively low. The center of gravity of water footprint and agricultural water footprint had shifted to the northwest by 20.41 km and 15.23 km, respectively. The trajectory of the center of gravity had always been within Shandan County and Minle County, without significant structural changes. Among the driving factors of water footprint change in the inland river basin of Gansu Province, the economic factor had a significant driving effect, with a high contribution value from economic effects (mean of 32.168 billion cubic meters), while technological and population effects exhibited inhibitory roles (mean of -1.395 billion cubic meters and -2.680 billion cubic meters, respectively). |
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