| 黄银兰,刘丹,陈实.中国北部冬小麦稳定种植分布及其影响因素分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,(5):263~271 |
| 中国北部冬小麦稳定种植分布及其影响因素分析 |
| Analysis of the spatial distribution and influencing factors of stable winter wheat planting in northern China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.05.26 |
| 中文关键词: 冬小麦 稳定种植区域 地形梯度 农业气候因子 土壤质量 中国北部 |
| 英文关键词:winter wheat stable planting area topographic gradient agricultural climate factor soil quality northern China |
| 基金项目:安徽省教育厅自然科学重大项目（2024AH040199）；安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目（AHSKQ2021D172） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于中国北部2018—2024年冬小麦数据，利用冷热点分析、地理探测器等方法分析中国北部冬小麦稳定种植空间格局特征，揭示地形梯度因子、农业气候因子和土壤质量指标对冬小麦稳定种植的影响，探究土地利用变化对冬小麦稳定种植分布的制约。结果表明：（1）中国北部约有40%冬小麦分布的种植概率超过71%，冬小麦稳定种植的热区主要位于河北省保定市、沧州市、石家庄市与廊坊市四市交界处，冷区主要聚集在山西省太原市、吕梁市、晋中市和长治市等地区。（2）地形梯度因子对冬小麦稳定种植影响最大（q均值为0.19），其次为农业气候因子（q均值为0.17），土壤质量对冬小麦稳定种植的影响最小，因子间的两两交互作用对冬小麦稳定种植影响较大。高程小于589 m的区域有利于冬小麦稳定种植，生育期积温大于2 020℃·d有利于冬小麦稳定种植。（3）土地利用变化类型中，耕地向不透水面转移、城镇扩张占用耕地对冬小麦稳定种植具有明显影响；适宜稳定种植冬小麦的耕地面积由1999年的64 344 km2减少至2023年的56 777 km2，减少了11.76%（7 567 km2）。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on winter wheat data from northern China spanning 2018 to 2024, this study employed methods such as hotspot analysis and the Geodetector to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of stable winter wheat planting. Additionally, the study explored the influence of topographic gradient factors, agro\|climatic conditions, and soil quality indicators on stable winter wheat planting and examined the constraints of land\|use changes on its spatial distribution. The results showed that: (1) Approximately 40% of winter wheat planting in northern China exhibited over 71% of occurrence probability. The hotspots for stable winter wheat planting were primarily located at the junction of Baoding, Cangzhou, Shijiazhuang, and Langfang in Hebei Province, while coldspots were concentrated in Taiyuan, Lüliang, Jinzhong, and Changzhi in Shanxi Province. (2) Topographic gradient factors had the most significant impact on stable winter wheat planting (average q value was 0.19), followed by agro\|climatic conditions (average q value was 0.17), with soil quality exerting the least influence. Notably, the interaction between pairs of factors significantly influenced winter wheat stability. The areas with an elevation of less than 589 meters and growing degree days exceeding 2020℃·d favored stable planting. (3) Among the types of land\|use changes, the conversion of cropland to impervious surfaces, driven by urban expansion, had a notable impact on stable winter wheat planting. The cropland area suitable for stable winter wheat planting declined from 64 344 km2 in 1999 to 56 777 km2 in 2023, representing a reduction of 11.76% (7 567 km2). |
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