| 吴久江,杨艳青,刘琰洁,沈良,赵伟.气候与物候非对称性下冬小麦净初级生产力干旱响应特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2026,(4):251~260 |
| 气候与物候非对称性下冬小麦净初级生产力干旱响应特征 |
| Response of winter wheat net primary productivity to drought under asymmetric changes in climate and phenology |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2026.04.24 |
| 中文关键词: 华北平原 冬小麦 气候-物候非对称性变化 气象干旱 净初级生产力 驱动机制 |
| 英文关键词:North China Plain winter wheat climate\|phenology asymmetry change meteorological drought net primary productivity driving mechanisms |
| 基金项目:自然资源部耕地资源调查监测与保护利用重点实验室开放基金（CLRKL2024GP07）；国家自然科学基金（42401504）；西藏自治区科技厅重点研发计划（XZ202401ZY0060） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探究气候变化背景下干旱频发与作物物候的非对称协同机制，以华北平原为研究区，依托长时序遥感和气象观测数据，构建集成气候非对称特征与物候动态的干旱响应分析框架，揭示冬小麦净初级生产力（NPP）对干旱的时空响应特征与关键调控路径。结果显示，各生育阶段气候适宜度整体由南向北递减，返青-抽穗气候适宜度均值为0.59，变异系数为13.6%，非对称波动最为显著，且整体呈现下降趋势，年均降低量达-0.22×10-2·a-1；50%以上的研究区内，气候-物候变化的非对称性同步加剧了冬小麦NPP干旱损失概率与损失强度。结构方程模型证实，主要气候因子的调控作用在各阶段呈现出由温度、降水向日照依次演替的模式，气候非对称性变化通过改变气候适宜度间接放大干旱风险。返青-抽穗作为作物营养生长向生殖生长转换的关键时段，对水热配比失衡尤为敏感，是干旱脆弱性提升的核心窗口期。本研究揭示了气候变化与作物物候的非对称线性协同作用对干旱风险的驱动影响，为提高农业系统对未来气候适应不确定性的响应能力提供了理论依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the asymmetric synergistic mechanism between frequent drought and crop phenology under the background of climate change, the North China Plain was chosen as the research area. Based on long\|term remote sensing and meteorological observation data, a drought response analysis framework integrating climate asymmetry characteristics and phenological dynamics was constructed to reveal the spatial and temporal response characteristics and key regulatory paths of winter wheat net primary productivity (NPP) to drought. The results showed that climatic suitability across growth stages generally decreased from south to north. Among these stages, the green\|up to heading period exhibited the most pronounced asymmetric fluctuations, with a mean climatic suitability of 0.59 and a coefficient of variation of 13.6%, and showed an overall declining trend at an average rate of -0.22×10-2 per year. Moreover, in more than 50% of the study area, the asymmetry between climate and phenologicaldynamics simultaneously increased both the probability and intensity of drought\|induced NPP losses. Structural equation modeling further revealed a stage\|dependent transition in the dominant climatic controls, shifting from temperature and precipitation to sunshine hours as crop development progressed. Climatic asymmetry changes indirectly amplified drought risk by altering climatic suitability. The green\|up to heading stage, which marks the transition from vegetative to reproductive growth, was particularly sensitive to imbalances in hydrothermal conditions and therefore represented a critical window of increasing drought vulnerability. This study reveals the compound driving effects of the asymmetric linear synergy between climate change and crop phenology on drought risk, and provides atheoretical foundationfor improving the response of agricultural systems to future climate adaptation. |
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