| 马永忠,黄英华,华成勋,杨学强.气象胁迫对辽西大枣产量的影响机制与预测模型研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2026,(4):272~281 |
| 气象胁迫对辽西大枣产量的影响机制与预测模型研究 |
| Study on the influence mechanism of meteorological factors on the yearly harvest of jujubes in Western Liaoning and the forecasting model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2026.04.26 |
| 中文关键词: 气候胁迫 经济林果 大枣 产量波动 辽西产区 |
| 英文关键词:climate stress economic fruit trees Chinese jujube yield fluctuation Western Liaoning production zone |
| 基金项目:中国气象局气象探测中心青年科技课题“基于闪烁通量和土壤水分的小麦/玉米作物干旱指标及卫星遥感检验”(MOCQN202108)；葫芦岛科技局课题“建昌地区核桃稳产增收气象服务研究”（2024JH（1）4/17b） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 辽西地区作为我国重要的大枣生产基地，近15年来气候异常导致年均减产达12.7%，制约了区域特色林果产业可持续发展。基于1973—2024年4个国家基准站气象数据，结合标准化枣产量资料，通过物候期分解与统计建模方法，系统量化了枣树休眠-成熟期多阶段的关键气候胁迫阈值，并构建大枣年景预测模型。结果表明：（1）枣树关键生育阶段存在特异性气象灾害阈值，休眠期日最低气温≤-20℃（DTD）且持续时长≥8 d，枣树木质部冻裂，与产量相关性极显著（r=-0.7578，P<0.01）；花期连续阴天日数（JCCD）≥4 d可使枣树坐果率降低37%；果实膨大期连续无有效降水日数（JACWP）≥35 d会诱发大量落果；成熟期累计降水量（SDP）>30 mm可使枣果裂果率增加20%。（2）基于多元线性回归构建的大枣年景预测模型为ysad=1.989-0.155x1-0.060x2-0.040x3-0.006x4（x1~x4分别为DTD、JCCD、JACWP、SDP），可解释86.6%的产量变异（R2=0.866），历史拟合精度达91.8%；模型在2023年、2024年独立验证误差均小于0.02σ。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The western region of Liaoning Province, a major jujube production base in China, has experienced an average annual yield reduction of 12.7% due to climate anomalies over the past 15 years, which threatens the sustainable development of the regional specialty fruit forest industry. Based on meteorological data from four national reference stations from 1973 to 2024, along with standardized Chinese jujube yield data, this study systematically quantified the critical climatic stress thresholds from the dormancy to maturity stages of Chinese jujube trees using phenological decomposition and statistical modeling methods, and constructed a jujube annual yield prediction model. The results showed that: (1) Specific meteorological disaster thresholds exist for key growth stages of jujube trees, during the dormancy period, a daily minimum temperature ≤-20℃ (DTD) lasting ≥8 days caused xylem frost cracking, with a highly significant correlation with jujube yield (r=-0.757, P<0.01); during the flowering stage, consecutive cloudy days (JCCD) ≥4 days reduced fruit set rate by 37%; during the fruit expansion stage, consecutive days without effective precipitation (JACWP) ≥35 days induced massive fruit drop; during the fruit\|ripening stage, cumulative precipitation (SDP) >30 mm increased fruit cracking rate by 20%. (2) The Chinese jujube annual yield prediction model constructed based on multiple linear regression was ysad=1.989-0.155x1-0.060x2-0.040x3-0.006x4 (where x1 to x4 represent DTD, JCCD, JACWP, and SDP, respectively), which explains 86.6% of the yield variation (R2=0.866) and achieves a historical fitting accuracy of 91.8%, the model’s independent validation errors for 2023 and 2024 were both less than 0.02σ. |
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