| 王丽霞,任志远,李小燕.区域粮食供需平衡及安全态势研究——以陕西省为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2006,(1):1~5 |
| 区域粮食供需平衡及安全态势研究——以陕西省为例 |
| Analysis on regional supply and demand equilibrium and security situation of grain — A case study of Shaanxi Province |
| |
| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2006.01.01 |
| 中文关键词: 粮食供需平衡 总产量波动 粮食安全线 陕西 |
| 英文关键词:grain supply and demand equilibrium production fluctuation grain security line Shaanxi |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(40371003) |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 125 |
| 全文下载次数: 115 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 以1983~2002年陕西省粮食生产统计数据为依据,利用Cobb—D oug lass生产函数,在SPSS软件环境中,构建粮食单产非线性回归模型,并结合粮食需求层次结构模型,对陕西省粮食供需能力做出中长期预测。在模拟粮食生产波动趋势的基础上,提出了粮食安全线的衡量标准,并对陕西省粮食安全态势予以评价。结果表明:陕西省粮食供需基本平衡,但近年来安全态势有所下降;粮食最低播种面积安全线应控制在230万hm2左右;农户存粮处于极不安全态势;粮食库存安全线应为69万t左右。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| According to the statistical data of grain production in Shaanxi Province in the year of 19832002,the non-linear regression model of grain production was established by using Cobb—Douglass production function in the software environment of SPSS.It was used to predict the mid and long term situation of grain supply and demand equilibrium,being combined with the grain demand structure model.On the basis of simulating the fluctuation tendency of grain production,the criterion of grain security line was brought forward and the security situation in Shaanxi Province was evaluated.The results show that the grain supply and demand in Shaanxi Province is basically balanced,but since 2000,the amount of residual grain has been decreasing generally and the security situation has been descending;the security line of the lowest grain planting area is about 2.30×106 hm2; the amount of grain deposit in the farmers' households has been under the security level for a long time;the security line of grain deposit should be about 690(kilo-tons.) |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| | |