胡利平,张华兰,王润元,陈俊,安晶.天水冬小麦气候条件与生产潜力开发程度变化动态[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(3):267~272
天水冬小麦气候条件与生产潜力开发程度变化动态
Climatic condition and change dynamic of development level of the potential productivity of winter wheat in Tianshui
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.03.49
中文关键词:  冬小麦  气候条件  生产潜力  开发程度  变化动态
英文关键词:winter wheat  climatic condition  potential productivity  development level  change
基金项目:科技部科研院所社会公益研究项目“西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究”(GYHY20080621)
作者单位
胡利平 Institute of Arid Meteorology Open Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China；Agrometeorological Experiment Station of Tianshui, Tianshui, Gansu 741020, China 
张华兰 Agrometeorological Experiment Station of Tianshui, Tianshui, Gansu 741020, China 
王润元 Institute of Arid Meteorology Open Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China 
陈俊 ianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui, Gansu 741018, China 
安晶 ianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui, Gansu 741018, China 
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中文摘要:
      对天水的渭北、河谷和关山区农业自然条件光温水进行了分析, 并通过冬小麦实际和试验产量资料, 对天水三个气候区冬小麦生产潜力开发程度、适宜开发程度和可开发程度进行了计算, 分析了它们的年际变化规律。结果表明, 天水地区和各气候分区年平均气温在20世纪的90年代初开始出现剧烈的增暖, 增暖后时段 (1991~2006年) 的平均值比增暖前 (1969~1990年) 均高0.8℃~0.9℃;降水量的减少主要发生在20世纪90年代, 其中, 渭北区减少幅度较大;冬小麦在渭北区、河谷区和关山区生产潜力适宜开发程度和可开发程度都较高, 排序为渭北区>河谷区>关山区, 长远看还有很大的潜力可以挖掘, 以渭北、河谷区域表现突出;天水及各气候区潜力开发程度、潜力适宜开发程度和潜力可开发程度的年际变化具有明显的区域差异, 其大多数距平年际变化幅度, 分别在-10%10%、-15%15%、-3%3%之间波动;气候条件的变化对冬小麦生产潜力开发程度、适宜开发程度和可开发程度的年际变化影响十分明显, 降水量的不足仍是限制冬小麦潜力适度开发的主要因子;提出了区域生产潜力适度开发对策措施。
英文摘要:
      The natural conditions like sunshine, temperature and precipitation were analyzed in the north of Wei River, the valley of Wei River and the area of Guan Mountain in Tianshui, Gansu Province, based on actual, experimental and statistical data of winter wheat output in three different areas in Tianshui, and the development level of potential productivity and the moderate development were calculated and their annual changes were analyzed.The results show that annual average temperature began dramatic warming in the early 1990's in three different areas of Tianshui, after warming the mean value of temperature in 1991～2006 is 0.8℃～0.9℃ higher than that in 1969～1990;the precipitation reduction mainly occurs in the 1990s, and, the north of Wei River reduction breadth is big;the level of moderate development is high, sequencing as the north of Wei River > the valley of Wei River > the area of Guan Mountain, still having great potential for long-term development, especially in the north of Wei River and the valley of Wei River;the annual change of the development degree of potential productivity and the moderate development degree and possible development degree has obvious difference in each region, its annual of anomaly change breadth is fluctuated in-10%～10%, -15%～15% and-3%～3%;changes of climatic conditions are very clear to the annual change of the development level of potential productivity and the moderate development, the main factor limiting moderate development of potential of winter wheat was the deficiency of precipitation.Countermeasures are put forward for moderate development of potential productivity in different areas of Tianshui.
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