| 张立伟,延军平,马琪,王晓喆.陕西东部地区农业对气候变化的适应度研究——以棉花为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(2):162~168 |
| 陕西东部地区农业对气候变化的适应度研究——以棉花为例 |
| Research on agricultural adaption degree to climate change in eastern part of Shaanxi Province——Take cotton production as an example |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.02.28 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 适应 适应度 气候暖干化 渭南 |
| 英文关键词:climate change adaptation adaption degree climate warming and drying Weinan |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“秦岭南北全球变化适应度评价及可持续发展模式选择”（40871052）；陕西师范大学研究生培养创新基金（2011CXS045） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究在综合分析已有气候变化适应问题研究成果基础上，依据渭南气象资料和棉花单产资料，进行案例分析，建立气候变化适应度的评价方法
。评价结果显示：（1）渭南1980—2009年气候有暖干化趋势，对当地的棉花生产有利；在此趋势下，气温（4—10月）和降水（9—10月）较30 a年平均值每升高1℃或每减少10 mm，
渭南棉花单产分别增加241 kg/hm2和13 kg/hm2。（2）在气候变化与人类适应能力逐年提高的背景下，渭南的农业气候适应度从20世纪80年代的62.5%增加到21世纪初10 a的93.72%，变差系数由83.7%减小为6.3%；可见渭南的农业气候变化适应度呈现明显的逐年代增加趋势，且波动性也逐渐降低。(3)技术进步对人类适应气候变化能力的提升有明显的帮助作用，渭南的棉花种植已经能较强适应当地的气候变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| According to meteorological data and cotton yield in in Weinan, a study was carried ou to establish assessment methods of agricultural adaption to climate change based on reviewing the previous researches on climate change adaption. The results show: (1) The climate warming and drying trends benefited cotton production in Weinan from 1980—2009; Cotton yield increased by 241 kg/hm2 and 13 kg/hm2 respectively when the temperature (Apr.～Oct.) increased by 1℃ or precipitation (Sep.～Oct.) reduced by 10 mm; (2) Human adaption has improved year by year in the background of climate change, and agro climatic adaption increased in W
einan from 62.5% in the 1980s to 93.72% in the early 21st century, however the coefficient of variation reduced from 83.7% to 6.3%. The degree of adaption to climate change in agriculture showed a clear increasing trend year by year, but the volatility decreased in Weinan. (3) Technological progress on human ability to adapt to climate change significantly helps to enhance the role of humans, and we have a strong adaption to climate change in cotton production of Weinan. |
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