| The regularity of precipitation in the Jinghe river basin in recent 60 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2004.03.35 |
| Key Words: Jinghe river basin time series methodology for statistic analysis |
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| Abstract: |
| Using the precipitation data observed by the 11weather stations（1996～2000） in Jinghe River basin and simplifying the research object—the precipitation data in Jinghe river basin by parting season， calculating average and filtrating wave，the article analyses the precipitation time series with statistic method．The result show that there are distinct5years and8years periods in spring，7years quasi periods in summer and autumn，4years and6years short periods in winter and around17years long period in addition． Furthermore，by analysis of Pingliang 59years （1942～2000） ’s precipitation，a resemble regularity are found．The testing simulation and forecast indicate that the prediction come near to the factual value in the past three years （2001～2003） ，and the situation of the lasting lack of autumn precipitation in Jinghe river basin in the past forty years （1961～2000） will be changed in early decade of 21st century． |