| Based on the statistical data in Shannxi Province in the past half century, the coupling trends of population-farmland-grain system are analyzed. It is thought that the population density on farmland has exceeded its carrying capacity, the grain per capita is insufficient and the grain supply is restrained, and the aging population makes the systematic contradiction even more complicated. The trends of the system in the coming 30 years are forecasted by means of models. The prediction results show that the farmland scarcity, grain deficiency and eco-environmental degradation will emerge all together if the system is continued with the traditional development model. Finally, the strategic countermeasures for the harmonious development of ecological-economic system are put forward. |