| Determination and prediction of flood and drought index for late spring and early summer in Longnan mountain area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2006.03.05 |
| Key Words: Longnan late spring and early summer floods and drought character prediction model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | XIAO Zhi-qang | ．Longnan Meteorological Burearu, Wudu, Gansu 746000,China | | LIN Shu | Lanzhou Center Meteorological Burearu,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020,China | | SHANG Xue-jun | ．Longnan Meteorological Burearu, Wudu, Gansu 746000,China | | FAN Ming | ．Longnan Meteorological Burearu, Wudu, Gansu 746000,China | | WU Wen-hui | ．Longnan Meteorological Burearu, Wudu, Gansu 746000,China | | ZHAO Yu-jun | ．Longnan Meteorological Burearu, Wudu, Gansu 746000,China | | WANG Xiao-ming | Liangdang Meteorological Burearu, Liangdang,Gansu 742400,China |
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| Abstract: |
| Late spring and early summer is the key period for autumn maize sowing,emerging,jointing and heading in longnan.Floods and droughts of this period directly affect maize yield.Through analyzing the weather and maize yield data from 1963 to 2003 according to the climatic rule and the condition of agriculture production,the index figure for judging the quantitative character of floods and droughts determined.The spatial distribution character of the flood and drought and its effect on agriculture production were analyzed using EOF method.Prediction models of the mean generating function method were established for different regions.Because the flood and drought indexes account for the drought and precipitation of the earlier stage as well as the precipitation and evaporation during the maize growth period,the index figure is related close with maize yield.For analysis and prediction of maize yield,the analysis and prediction of the flood and drought indexes were more complete and objective than the traditional method.The forecast accuracy and service efficiency were largely enhanced by using the application of this method in 2004. |
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