| Effect of climate warming on mature date of winter wheat and forecast of harvest in Eastern Gansu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2007.01.33 |
| Key Words: climate warming east of Gansu Province winter wheat mature period |
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| Abstract: |
| The temperature data in past 35 years for east Gansu Province were analyzed.The result showed that the average temperature had a tendency to obviously increase with years,the increase range of the yearly average temperature was 0.0469 ℃/a,the increase scope was the largest in spring and winter,and relatively small in summer and autumn.Climate warming made winter wheat growth early in spring,which is the main reason that the mature period of winter wheat became early.The high temperature at the beginning of summer and at the end of spring,little precipitation and long duration of high-temperature accelerated the development process of winter wheat and shortened growth days,which is another reason that the mature period of winter wheat became early.According to the measurement data of winter wheat in past 10 years at agri-meteorological experiment station of Xifeng,weather data from jointing to ear period of winter wheat,crop development process and year type analysis,prediction thinking and method of mature period of winter wheat were set up.The suitable reaping date of winter wheat for Qingyang in 2006 was predicted.The number of precipitation days suitable for Qingyang in summer harvest in past 5 years was analyzed.It was predicted that the suitable reaping date of winter wheat for Qingyang in 2006 was 15～25 June.The prediction is identical with really mature period. |
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