Drought forecasting based on the standardized precipitation index at different temporal scales using ARIMA models
View Fulltext  View/Add Comment  Download reader
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2008.02.41
Key Words: standardized precipitation index(SPI)  ARIMA models  drought forecasting
Author NameAffiliation
HAN Ping College of Science China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China 
WANG Pengxin College of Information and Electrical Engineering China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China 
WANG Yanji College of Information and Electrical Engineering China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China 
ZHANG Shuyu Remote Sensing Information Center for Agriculture of Shaanxi Province,Xi’an，Shaanxi 710015，China 
ZHU Dehai College of Information and Electrical Engineering China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China 
Hits: 310
Download times: 301
Abstract:
      The time series of SPI at different temporal scales are calculated from monthly precipitation data,which was collected from 36 weather stations in Guanzhong Plain and Weibei Tablelands.ARIMA models are developed to forecast and simulate SPI series.The results show that ARIMA models can predict SPI 3,6,9 series with 1-month lead-time at the precision of under 10%,and can predict the SPI 12,24 series with 9-month lead-time at the average precision of under 10%. Forecasting precision increases with the increase of temporal scales.
Today Visitor: 233 Total   Visitors??1828618
Copyright Editorial Department of Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
Technical support: Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.