| Drought forecasting based on the standardized precipitation index at different temporal scales using ARIMA models |
|
View Fulltext View/Add Comment Download reader |
| |
| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2008.02.41 |
| Key Words: standardized precipitation index(SPI) ARIMA models drought forecasting |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | HAN Ping | College of Science China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China | | WANG Pengxin | College of Information and Electrical Engineering China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China | | WANG Yanji | College of Information and Electrical Engineering China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China | | ZHANG Shuyu | Remote Sensing Information Center for Agriculture of Shaanxi Province,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710015,China | | ZHU Dehai | College of Information and Electrical Engineering China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China |
|
| Hits: 731 |
| Download times: 563 |
| Abstract: |
| The time series of SPI at different temporal scales are calculated from monthly precipitation data,which was collected from 36 weather stations in Guanzhong Plain and Weibei Tablelands.ARIMA models are developed to forecast and simulate SPI series.The results show that ARIMA models can predict SPI 3,6,9 series with 1-month lead-time at the precision of under 10%,and can predict the SPI 12,24 series with 9-month lead-time at the average precision of under 10%. Forecasting precision increases with the increase of temporal scales. |
|
|
|