| Prediction model of the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew in Longnan mountainous area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2008.03.16 |
| Key Words: Longnan mountainous area wheat powdery mildew regularity of epidemic prediction model |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the data of wheat powdery mildew from 1990 to 2005 in Longnan mountainous area the analytic conclusions are as follows：there is low frequency happening of wheat powdery mildew in the Bailong River basin Huicheng basin and western Hanshui River basin；There are obvious relationships between the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew and the area of infestation and the percentage of seedling diseases and infestation area last autumn and the area of infestation early this spring and the average temperature of this May and last July and October and precipitation of this April and last July August and November and there are positive relationships between the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew and average temperature from last September to this March and precipitation from April to August but there are negative relationships between the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew and average temperature from April to August and precipitation from last September to this March．Moreover the historical fitting accuracy of prediction model established on the above results is 93．75％ and the percentage of prediction is 100％ in 2006．Meanwhile the preventive measure is concluded by combining with the experiment． |