| Time serial change of grain yield and its impact factors in Hailun Heilongjiang Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2008.04.41 |
| Key Words: grain yield time serial change impact factor Hailun County |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the agriculture statistical data from 1978 to 2005 in Hailun County the agricultural development process and factors are analyzed by using the linear regression the gray system analysis and principal component analysis method．The conclusions are as following：The fluctuation of purveyance production is related with grain yield especially the production of maize is the dominant factor．Analyzed from the viewpoint of the crop construction the fluctuation of grain yield is related significantly with both grain yield per hectare of maize and wheat and the planting area of maize and rice．Grain yield per hectare is the most important factor in the method of the gray system analysis．There was significant correlation between effective irrigated area the amount of fertilizer applied mechanical power and the grain yield．The area of grain and the population of agriculture are factors that affect grain production．The correlation coefficient of natural resources and grain production changes unstably．Moreover the countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain are presented such as balancing between the fluctuation and crop construction of purveyance production relying on scientific progress to increase grain yield per unit area strengthening ability of agricultural production establishing protection policy of agricultural production and improving farmers’enthusiasm of agricultural production. |