| Climatic characteristic and forecast model of drought in late spring and early summer in the upland of North Xianyang area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2008.05.49 |
| Key Words: north Xianyang drought climatic characteristic forecast model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | DOU Shen | Xunyi County Meteorological Bureau, Xunyi, Shaanxi 711302, China | | ZHU Haili | Xianyang Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Xianyang, Shaanxi 712000, China | | CHENG Guofeng | Xunyi County Meteorological Bureau, Xunyi, Shaanxi 711302, China | | LUO Xian | Xianyang Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Xianyang, Shaanxi 712000, China | | WANG Wei | Xianyang Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Xianyang, Shaanxi 712000, China | | WANG Wei | Xianyang Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Xianyang, Shaanxi 712000, China | | SHI Chuangshe | Xianyang Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Xianyang, Shaanxi 712000, China |
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| Abstract: |
| The drought in late spring and early summer is analyzed by EOF combined with the DH in the upland of north Xianyang, Shaanxi Province. Its distribution feature and deve-lopment rule with time is analyzed and some suggestions are made. The influence on the yield of winter wheat and corn is pointed out. Then a drought forecast model is established with regression method. The results showed that the probability of occurrence of late spring drought in the area has identity characteristics. It is spatially distributed in two parts, north and south, of which the south is higher than the north, while for annual distribution, there appears a trend of increasingly frequent and continuous drought in recent years. And there is an identity for temporal and spatial distribution. The forecast model, established according to distribution characteristics of drought index DH of the two parts proves to be effective. |
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