| Application of DSSAT crop model on prediction of potential yield of spring wheat in Ningxia |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.02.08 |
| Key Words: DSSAT crop model baseline climate scenario A2and B2climate scenario cultivar coefficient potential yield |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | YANG Qin | Weather Station of Ningxia, Yinchuan,Ningxia 750002,China | | XU Yinlong | Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081,China | | LIN Erda | Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081,China | | XIONG Wei | Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081,China | | CHEN Xiaoguang | Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai,Xining,Qinghai 810001,China |
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| Abstract: |
| nder the conditions that insect pest and diseases were not considered the CERES-Wheat model in DSSAT 3．5 crop modeling was applied to predict potential yield of spring wheat in Ningxia．Through adjusting spring wheat cultivar coefficients of Yongliang No．4on Yongning County and validating the model cultivar coefficients were identified．Using these coefficients growth performance and potential yields were simulated on the same cultivar for15years （1986～2000） in Pingluo County．The results showed that between simulation and observation there was a good approach for potential yields and flowering days and a larger error for physiological maturity days．Under the future climate scenarios（A2and B2scenarios） in Huanghe irrigation area of Ningxia for39grids（25 km×25 km scale） potential yields were simulated for90years which were divided into three stages（2011～2040 2041～2070 2071～2100） and were compared with baseline climate scenario（1961～1990）．The results showed that potential yields under both future climate scenarios（A2 and B2） would decrease compared with that under the baseline climate scenario by3％ 8％ and19％ under three different stages of A2climate scenario respectively and by3％ 7％ and11％ under three different stages of B2climate scenario. The decrease rate under higher release of CO2 was larger than that under lower release. |
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