| Meteorological condition analysis and prediction for occurrence of corn fields’Bollworm in Shiyang River basin |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.03.41 |
| Key Words: Bollworm (Heliothis armigera) Shiyang River basin corn field meteorological condition prediction model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | JIANG Jufang | Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA Institute of Arid Meteorology China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China；Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei, Gansu 733000, China | | WEI Yuguo | Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei, Gansu 733000, China | | LIU Mingchun | Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei, Gansu 733000, China |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to study the occurrence rules and perfect forecast the harm characteristic of corn fields’ bollworn in Shiyang River basin, based on the datas of meteorological and bollworm in Shiyang River basin from 1999 to 2007, we, using puffs related and ‘spss’ software counts, analyzed and simulated prediction model between meteorological factors and the beginning see term of eggs, eggs’ peak continuing, eggs’ quantity of peak each hundred ears by stepwise regression and variance analysis.The prediction effect was preferable.The results showed that the accumulative dynamic of bollworm eggs was “S” growing curve, the equation was Nt=206.8536/(1+e3.8130-0.3703t) , assuming the slow growth～accelerating growth～decelerating growth.The light and heat factors were negative correlation to the beginning see term of eggs.The water factors and wind restrained positive correlation to the beginning see term of eggs.They were on the contrary to eggs' quantity of peak each hundred ears.If the heat was much and the temperature was high, the bollworn's fecundity and viability advanced, the eggs occurrence was early and the year occurrence degree was worse. If the egg and pupal stage were comparatively arid, it's good to eggs’ eclosio and good to egg’s quantity increasing and egg's early occurrence. |
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