| Prediction of ecological footprint per capita in Shaanxi Province with ARIMA model |
|
View Fulltext View/Add Comment Download reader |
| |
| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.04.47 |
| Key Words: ecological footprint time series ARIMA model forecast |
|
| Hits: 180 |
| Download times: 182 |
| Abstract: |
| The ecological footprint method was used to calculate Shaanxi Province's ecological footprint from 1978～2006, and the time-series model ARIMA was used to reve
al the law of its variance with the change of the time. After comparing the four models, the ARIMA (1,2,1) model was chosen because its AIC value was the lowest. According to this model, the calculated result of ecological footprint per capita from 1978～2006 fitted well the original value, and the error is relatively smaller. So the model was used to predict the ecological footprint per capita in Shaanxi Province for 2007～2016, and the results were:1.80842, 1.9476, 2.09103, 2.23888, 2.39108, 2.54767, 2.70862, 2.87395, 3.04366 and 3.21773 hm2, from which we can find that Shaanxi Province's ecological footprint per capita increased by ever faster speed, and the province is faced with an increasingly unfavorable condition for sustainable development. |
|
|
|