| Prediction on changes of precipitation in Tuwei River reaches based on weighted Markov Chain |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.06.48 |
| Key Words: precipitation weight Markov chain prediction Tuwei River |
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| Abstract: |
| Mean-standard deviation classification method is applied to classify precipitation of five states,i.e.water-logging year,weak water-logging year,normal year,weak drought year,and drought year based on the fact that there are much uncertainty and imprecise characteristics in the precipitation course.Then a method called Markov chain with weights is presented to predict future precipitation state by regarding the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of precipitation being a dependent stochastic variable.Finally the middle reach of the Tuwei River of the Huanghe River basin is taken as an example to carry out the method and analyze the possibility and change patterns of precipitation in the future condition. The results indicate that the precipitation prediction state of Tuwei River consistent with the practical situation in 2002. |
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