| Study on the characters of drought and flood response to climate change in Datong over the past 48 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.05.50 |
| Key Words: temperature jumping drought and flood prediction of drought and flood response Datong City |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | WANG Xinhua | College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, China | | YAN Junping | College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, China | | CHAI Shasha | College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on monthly average temperature and precipitation data in Datong City from 1960～2007, the average temperature and precipitat
ion changes are analyzed under the influence of global warming. The abrupt temperature is determined by sliding t-test and SNR method. On this basis, study is made on the droughts and floods around abrupt temperature change in Datong. The prediction states of drought and flood in the next 5 years is determined by Markov. The results indicate: The temperature has been rising obviously in Datong in recent 48 years; As the temperature rises, the proportion of drought increases obviously. Especially after the abrupt temperature change, the probability of drought state (4 and 5) is as high as 63.64%. There is a certain probability of weak drought state from 2009～2012. |
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