| Risk assessment of agricultural drought in three provinces of southeastern coast of China based on information diffusion theory |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.06.44 |
| Key Words: information diffusion theory three provinces of southeastem coast agricultural drought risk assess-ment |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | CHEN Jiajin | Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou, Fuyian 350001，China | | WANG Jiayi | Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou, Fuyian 350001，China | | LIN Jing | Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou, Fuyian 350001，China | | YANG Kai | Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou, Fuyian 350001，China | | MA Zhiguo | Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou, Fuyian 350001，China | | XU Zonghuan | Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou, Fuyian 350001，China |
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| Abstract: |
| The risk of agricultural drought in a region was assessed by the latest normal information diffusion method, combining with the data of agricultural drought damage-suffering areas and the disaster- affected areas in three
provinces of southeasterm coast of China for past years. It was suggested that the damage suffering risk was higher than the
disaster- afected risk in three provinces of southeastern coast of China. When the level of the damage suffering risk was
less than or equal to 7.5%，and the level of the disaster- afected risk was less than or equal to 6%，the probability of
the damage-suffering risk and the disaster-affected risk displayed that: the biggest probability was in Guangdong
province, and the second was in Fujian province, while the smallest was in Zhejiang province. When the level of the
damage-suffering risk was more than 7.5%，the probability of the damage-suffering risk might be bigger in Fujian
province or in Guangdong province, while the probability was relatively small in Zhejiang. When the level of the disaster-affected risk was more than 6%，the probability of the disaster-afected risk displayed that: the biggest probability was in Fujian province, and the second was in Cuangdong province, while the smallest was in Zhejiang province. The result of the risk evaluation almost accorded with the actual situation. |
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