| Annual type prediction for apple blossom frost damage based on Markov Chain in Shaanxi |
|
View Fulltext View/Add Comment Download reader |
| |
| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.02.46 |
| Key Words: apple frost damage annual type prediction Markov Chain |
|
| Hits: 267 |
| Download times: 214 |
| Abstract: |
| By using extreme temperature in April from 1971~2007 in 29 apple-producing counties, annual type division index of frost damage in apple blossom stage in Shaanxi was proposed:serious frost damage (NTd≤-2℃≥ 10)，
moderate frost damage (NTd≤-2℃<10 & NTd≤0℃≥15)，light frost damage (NTd≤-2℃<10 & NTd≤0℃<15 & NTd≤2℃≥19)，and normal frost damage (NTd≤-2℃<10 & NTd≤0℃<15 & NTd≤2℃< 19). We calculated transition probability matrix under various conditions by using Markov Chain transition probability calculations based on the state classification year by year, and then the Markov Chain Model for Prediction of frost damage in apple blossom stage in Shaanxi was es-tablished. We conducted the case study and returm test of annual type prediction，and the results showed better effect，with accuracy rate of 83%，and what should be paid attention to in the use of the model was suggested. The model has better results of prediction，and it can gain time for the disaster prevention and mitigation and provide basis for it. |