| Risk assessment of grain yield loss caused by meteorological disasters in Liaoning Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.04.44 |
| Key Words: grain yield risk of yield loss caused by meteorological disasters meteorological yield |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | JIANG Hewen | Huludao Meteorological Bureau, Huludao, Liaoning 125000, China
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210093, China | | ZHANG Lujun | School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210093, China | | CAO Shimin | Huludao Meteorological Bureau, Huludao, Liaoning 125000, China | | GUO Tingting | Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang, Liaoning 110003, China | | LIAO Jingjing | Huludao Meteorological Bureau, Huludao, Liaoning 125000, China | | ZHANG Limin | Huludao Meteorological Bureau, Huludao, Liaoning 125000, China |
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| Abstract: |
| From the perspective of risk analysis of yield loss caused by meteorological disasters, and used of the grain yield data from 1971～2008, an assessment model is
constructed to analyze the risk of disastrous yield loss of major grain crops in Liaoning Province, namely corn and rice. Then the risks of grain yield loss in Liaoning caused by natural disasters are comprehensively analyzed from the aspects of average reduction rate of past years, the variation coefficient of yield reduction rate in disastrous years, risk index of yield losses, and etc. The results show that most areas across Liaoning are lowly-risky for corn production; the highly-risky areas are mainly in Jinzhou and Chaoyang, while Dalian, Anshan and Huludao belong to medium-risky zone. The lowly-risky areas for rice production are found mainly in Panjin and Yingkou, while the highly risky zone is located in Tieling, Fushun of north Liaoning and Jinzhou of the west; the other areas of the province are all medium-risky for rice production. In the past 38 years, about corn, the number of disastrous years were from 11～18, the average reduction rate of all the years was from 9.2%～26.7%, the variation coefficient was from 0.529～0.732; and about rice, the number of disastrous years were from 6～14, the average reduction rate of all years was from 6.7%～12.3%, the variation coefficient was from 0.399～0.722. |
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