| Trend forecast of grain production and food security in Shaanxi Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.04.45 |
| Key Words: moving average method grain production potential climatic yield grain yield per unit area Shaanxi Province |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | LI Jianping | College of Agronomy, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | SHANGGUAN Zhouping | College of Agronomy, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on moving average method and data of grain production in Shaanxi Province over the past 31 years, its short-term grain production potential of the next 10 years was predicted. The results indicate that: grain yield per unit area of Shaanxi will increase with a small scale of 46.2 kg/hm2 annually for another decade; and its total grain output increases slowly,
with an average annual growth of 104 tons; In components of grain yield, wheat production and its ratio in tatal output are declining, but corn production is increasing, while the change of rice and soybean yield and their proportion are negligible; The yield of each crop per unit area is steadily increasing; A key
factor to hinder the increase of grain possession per capita is the ever increase of population. According to the actual situation of grain production in the province, we present some developing strategies of comprehensive grain production potential in respects of population control, land conservation, water-saving agriculture, technology and financial investment, grain reserve, environmental protection and so on. |
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