| Trend and sustainability analysis of air temperature and precipitation in Fukang oasis from 1971 to 2009 |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.04.47 |
| Key Words: air temperature and precipitation wavelet analysis abrupt change moving t test Fukang oasis |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | TANG Jin | College of Pratacultural and Environmental Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjaing 830052, China | | LI Xia | College of Pratacultural and Environmental Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjaing 830052, China | | LU Lei | Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Science, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: |
| The trend, period and abrupt change of annual temperature and precipitation in Fukang oasis were analyzed with methods of linear analysis, annual anomalies, moving t test and wavelet analysis. The results i
ndicate that: (1) The annual temperature and precipitation trend is in decrease in nearly 40 years. The average temperature trend is 0.44℃/10a and the correlat
ion coefficient is 0.61. The average precipitation trend is 14.04 mm/10a and the correlation coefficient is 0.26. (2) There is an obvious periodic of 7 and 18 years
for the annual temperature series during nearly 40 years. At the scale of 7 years, there are 8 high frequency periods and 9 latent periods for the annual temperature series; At the scale of 18 years, there are 4 high frequency periods and 4 latent periods for annual temperature series. There is an obvious periodic of 5 and 18 years for the annual precipitation series during nearly 40 year. At the scale of 5 years, there are 13 high frequency periods and 14 latent periods for the annual precipitation series; At the scale of 18 years, there are 1 high frequency periods and 2 latent periods for the annual precipitation series. The wavelet analysis indicates that the annual temperature will keep an increasing tren
d in the coming years, while the annual precipitation may show a decreasing change in the coming years. (3) The trend of annual anomalies shows that the annual
temperature and precipitation changes in 1983 and 1997, which passed the significance test at 0.10 level. The study on climate change may provide a basis for ec
ological monitoring, climate projections and agricultural development in Fukang oasis. |
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