| Probability distribution and recurrence interval prediction of the extreme value of air temperature in extreme meteorological disasters of apples |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.03.43 |
| Key Words: apple meteorological disaster extreme value of air temperature distribution model recurrence inter-val |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | LI Meirong | College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of lnformation Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044, China
Shaanxi Meteorological Service Observatory fos Economical Crops, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710015, China | | LI Xingmin | Meteorological lnstitute of Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710015, China | | BAI Qinfeng | Shaanxi Meteorological Service Observatory fos Economical Crops, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710015, China | | ZHANG Weimin | Shaanxi Meteorological Service Observatory fos Economical Crops, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710015, China |
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| Abstract: |
| To study the probability distribution of air temperatures’ extreme value thus to predict its recurrence in-terval is a method to objectively evaluate the intensity of extreme meteorological disasters during the critical period of crops. Taking apple as an example, based on the index of extreme meteorological disasters, by using daily air tempera-ture data, a probability distribution and recurrence interval predicting model was set up for the extreme value of air tem-perature about critically freezing injury during blooming period(the lowest temperature on Aprs<-2℃)and critically high temperature damage during apple fruit swelling period(the highest temperature in June~August>40℃), Analysis was also conducted of the frequency of freezing injury during wintering period on the northern enlarged area of apple planting. The results show that:To Shaanbei and Weibei areas, the critically freezing injury during blooming period will arise at 10a’s recurrence interval, but critically high temperature damage during apple fruit swelling period will not arise at 100a’s recurrence interval; To Guanzhong and most part of Weibei areas, and the same type recurrence interval is 40
~50 a and 30~80 a, respectively. To the same recurrence interval, both the lowest and the highest temperature of Shaanbei and Weibei areas are apparently lower than Guanzhong and most part of Weibei areas; In the northern enlarged apple planting area, freezing injury will appeare in Ganquan, Mizhi, Wuqi, Zhidan and Zizhou during wintering period every year on average, and the frequency of freezing injury in Mizhi, Wuqi and Zhidan during wintering period will be even higher, as many as 2~3 times every year. |
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