| Simulation of change trend of crop yields under different climate change scenarios in Northeast and North China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.03.44 |
| Key Words: climate change scenarios crop growth model yield change trend simulation |
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| Abstract: |
| The regional climate models PRECIS and RegCM3 and the crop growth model WOFOST were combined to simulate the changes in crop yields under different climate change scenarios in the future 40a. The preliminary results show that there is a decrease trend in maize yield at southwest part of Northeast China in view of the average values from 2011-2050, and the higheet reduction was distributed at the areas of Baicheng, Tongyu in the west part of Jilin province under the three climate change scenarios. There is also a decrease trend in wheat yield in the east part of Hebei province and in the east part of Shandong province, and the highest reduction was distributed at Beijing and Tianjin and its east parts under the REA scenario. The reduction trend was also occurred at middle and east parts of Hebei province and in the east part of Shandong province and the south part of Henan province, and the highest reduction was distributed at Tianjin and the area east of it and the east part of Shandong province under the scenarios A2 and B2. |
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