| Grain production of last 10 years and its grey prediction in the Yellow River Delta |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.05.03 |
| Key Words: Grey prediction crop production uncertainty analysis Yellow River Delta |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | LI Jing | Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China | | ZHU Nong | Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China | | LI Fenggui | Soil and fertilizer station, Dongying City Agriculture Bureau, Kenli, Shandong 257500, China | | LI Fadong | Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China | | SUN Zhenzhong | Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the historical data of crop production from 2000 to 2009, the 10 years change trends of crop production in the Yellow River Delta as well as the spatial distribution and crop production of 19 counties in this area were analyzed. According to the GM (1, 1) theory and by use of Matlab software, a quantitative model for forecasting the crop production was developed. The uncertainty analysis was performed at last. The results showed that the crop production of the Yellow River Delta would continue to rise in the next several years. The correlation degree R between the simulated values and actual values, the mean-square deviation, and the residual errors verified that the precision of the model prediction belongs to level I. The predicted results can be a basis of scientific decision for the local government. |
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