| Climate change and its impact on maize potential productivity of Heilongjiang Province in China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.05.05 |
| Key Words: climate change light-temperature potential productivity climatic potential productivity maize |
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| Abstract: |
| Climate change affects regional crop production. So far, a quantitative assessment of the long time series impacts remains difficult. Heilongjiang Province is one of the most important grain-producing provinces in China, and its maize production plays an important role in local and national food security. At the same time, Heilongjiang Province has experienced substantial climate change during the last 30 years (1980—2009). Based on 30 years observational data from thirty meteorological stations, this study firstly analyzed the characteristics of climate changes in the province, and then calculated the light-temperature potential productivity (LTPP) and climatic potential productivity (CPP) by using the crop growth model of FAO AEZ-project. Furthermore, this paper assessed the impacts of climate change on maize potential productivity, and also analyzed the exploitation space of maize productivity. The results showed that: (1) over 30 years, the climate has transitioned from a warm-wet to a warm-dry pattern in Heilongjiang Province, and the climatic tendency of mean tem
perature and precipitation are 0.55℃ and -23 mm per decade, respectively. (2) The LTPP and CPP of maize were between 10 583～14 561 kg/hm2 and 5 426～10 567 kg/hm2 respectively in the last 30 years. The increasing of mean temperature and decreasing of precipitation led to a notable increased LTPP and decreased CPP. (3) The change trends of the exploitation space based on LTPP and CPP over 30 years were both decreasing. The actual yield of maize still has a 66% and 51% gap to the LTPP and CPP respectively. That is to say, the exploitation space of maize yield increasing is large relatively. |
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