| Assessment on drought risk of typical wheat in China based on EPIC model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.05.39 |
| Key Words: drought hazard risk EPIC model wheat China |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | WANG Zhiqiang | National Disaster Reduction Center/Satellite Application Center for Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing 100124, China
Key Laboratory of Integrated Disaster Assessment and Risk Governance of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing 100124, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China | | HE Fei | PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited, Disaster Research Center, Beijing 100022, China | | LI Jian | College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China | | LIAO Yongfeng | National Disaster Reduction Center/Satellite Application Center for Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing 100124, China
Key Laboratory of Integrated Disaster Assessment and Risk Governance of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing 100124, China |
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| Abstract: |
| With global climate change and global warming, the frequency and intensity of drought event and loss is increased. This paper simulated the growth process of wheat in China from 1966 to 2005 using EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Clim
ate) crop model, developed the drought hazard intensity index based on crop water stress index and quantitatively analyzed the tempo-spatial distribution regularity of wheat drought hazard intensity and drought hazard risk. The results is as follows: Fistly, drought hazard intensity of wheat caused by drought was decreased from the arid region of northwest China to the humid region of southeast China, and drought hazard intensity of spring wheat area was higher than winter wheat area; Secondly, the annual variation and intensity of wheat drought hazard
intensity had an abnormal high-value zone, and its space range agreed with the Farming-Pastoral Zone and ecological vulnerable zone of China, which is the high-value zone of the wheat drought hazard risk; Finally, in 1966 to 2005, drought hazard intensity of spring wheat area was decreased, while drought intensity of the winter wheat area was increased, and the North winter wheat area and the winter wheat area of Huang-River and Huai-River demonstrated a distinguished uptrend in all wheat distribution area. |
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