| Econometric analysis of relationship between quantity of cultivated land and agricultural economy in Changwu County in past 30 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.06.37 |
| Key Words: farmland area agricultural economy mutual impact impulse response function Changwu County |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | XU Jinpeng | College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | ZHANG Xiaoping | State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plaieau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | ZHANG Jianjun | State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plaieau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | XIA Yan | Grassland Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010010, China | | SUN Yanping | College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | CHEN Fengjuan | College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
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| Abstract: |
| The agricultural economy of Changwu County has advanced rapidly over the past 30 years, while the area of agricultural land has declined at an amazing speed during the same period. In this study, an attempt was made to quantify the relationship between the amount of farmland and agricultural economy development in Changwu by establish-ing Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) and in combination with Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition. The results indieated that, a positive but slight effect of farmland reduetion on agricultural development was identi-fied. The average impulse response values were 0.4, 0.8 and 1.6 for the periods of 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 respectively, and 0.8 for the entire 30 years. On the other hand, the effect of agricultural economy develop-ment on farmland amount was found negative, and tended to intensify with time. And the average impulse response values were -0.3, -0.9 and 2.8 rcspectively. The change of farmland resources did not seem to contribute signifieantly to the advancement of agricultural economy, with only a maximal 22% of the contribution from farmland change. While farmland decline was greatly influenced by agricultural development, and a peak 88.9% of total decrease in farmland was triggered by agricultural economy factor. Thus, it is urgent to find out other factors that could boost the local agricultural economy and preserve the limited farmland resource for the purpose of food security. |
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