| Risk assessment of drought for winter wheat production in Hebei Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.06.39 |
| Key Words: winter wheat drought risk assessment measures
for disaster reduction |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the risk analysis principle of natural disasters, both climatic data and yield data of winter wheat from 49 meteorological stations in winter wheat producing region of Hebei from 1980-2010 were used to calculate three risk indexes including climatie drought risk, crop drought risk and yield losses risk respectively, then risk zones were di-vided, and based on those the disaster reduction strategies for different risk zones were put forward. The results showed that there were mainly moderate risk or higher risk zones according to the climatic drought risk analysis in the province, and the higher risk zone was the main one according to crop drought risk analysis, but the main zone was the low risk zone according to yield loss risk analysis. There was no significant correlation within climatic drought, crop drought and yield loss, but there was significant correlation between yield loss risk and irrigation. Different strategies should be taken in different yield loss risk zones. ln the highest risk zone, drought-prevention was the key measure, a series of measures of moisture-conservation must be taken so as to improve the use efficiency of rainfall. In higher risk zone, the main mea-sure was drought-resistance and drought-prevention through strengthening water conservancy project and improving irriga-tion efficieney of farmland. Optimizing the irrigation system was the main measure to achieve high-yield with less-water in the medium and low risk zones. |
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