| Study on the forecasting model of potato yield based on drive of climate factors in Yinshan area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.06.42 |
| Key Words: potato yield forecasting model climate factors Yinshan area |
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| Abstract: |
| To grasp the potato yield and to improve the meteorological service ability in the middle and late period of potato
growth and to guide potato production, with the potato production of dry farming region as the research object, the key climate factors influencing potato yield were estimated and the forecasting model of potato yield was built with the cor-relation and regression method based the meteorological data of 16 weather stations and the related data of potato develop-ment in 1980-2007. The results showed that:(1)The precipitation was the key factor to restrict potato production, and the temperature
secondly. The effect of high temperature stress of Qianshan
area was greater than that of Houshan area, while the effect of inadequate precipitation was on the contrary. Little precipitation and high temperature were the main limiting factors. (2)The meteorological yield prediction model was established by using stepwise regression method for four periods of time, including seedling to tuber formation, seedling to stareh accumulation, tuber formation to starch ac-cumnulation and the whole growing season, reached extremely significant level, with over 75% fitting rate, 11.1% yield estimation average error and 0.34%~27.9% amplitude error, 85% estimation accuracy beyond 80%, and the estima-tion result was better than each banner county area. (3)The tuber formation was the most sensitive period to water and temperature; Among different time models, better. The estimation results of growth season and seedling to tuber formation stage were better. The model can be used on
potato yield estimation business. |
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