| Scenario simulation on grain security in commercial grain base in northeast China——A case study of Dehui city |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2013.02.36 |
| Key Words: grain security scenario simulation system dynamics commercial grain production base Dehui city |
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| Abstract: |
| With the purpose of seeking an ideal plan for grain security in major grain production areas, the system dynamics model of grain production was set up to describe the interactions among key factors impacting grain production in Dehui city. According to the four proposed scenarios, the change trends of grain production capacity were simulated under single factor change conditions. By combining the simulation results of the four single factors, a multi-factors scenario was proposed, which was rather in line with the actuality. Based on the results of syst
em dynamics model, the policy suggestions for ensuring regional grain security were put forward: (1) the water supply capacity should be secured; (2) the goal of mid- and long-term grain security in Dehui city should maintain the total production of 2 million tons; (3) the appropriate ratio of paddy field should be no more than 35 percent; and (4) the annual growth rate of urbanization should be 1 percent at most. |
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