| Dynamic assessment of agricultural drought disasters risk based on crop growth model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2013.04.041 |
| Key Words: drought disasters risk crop growth model agriculture Liaoning Province |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper reviewed the basic concepts of the drought disaster risk and addressed the difficulties of dynamical assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk. To obtain the final yields of crop, the DNDC model was used to simulate the crop daily growth. The dynamical assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk was derived from the estimation of the crop yields under different weather conditions by using scenario analysis method and the further calculation of the yield losses caused by drought. A 15-years sequence data of maize growth in Liaoning Province, counties as the spatial analysis units, was used in this paper to assess the losses caused by drought. The total error of model simulation was about 16%. The risk analysis results showed that the drought disaster risk in northwest region of Liaoning Province was higher than in other regions, which is consistent with the real drought situation of Liaoning Province. |