| Precipitation change in recent 60 years and drought prediction in Xinxiang |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2013.05.003 |
| Key Words: precipitation drought prediction gray system GM(1,1) mode |
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| Abstract: |
| Xinxiang City in He'nan Province is a region with a serious water shortage. Recently, the problem of water shortage has become even more outstanding due to the aggravation of drought, which has eriously restricted the social and economic development. Thus it is important to analyze the trend of precipitation change and to conduct drought forecasting in this region. Based on the annual precipitation in Xinxiang during 1953 to 2010, the temporal variation of precipitation was analyzed by using linear regression equation and Mann Kendall method. The results showed that the precipitation tended to decrease and the drought frequency tended to increase in Xinxiang in current 60 years. With the observed values of annual precipitation during 1953 to 2000 as modeling data and those during 2001 to 2010 as testing data, and by using gray system technique, the gray prediction model GM(1,1) of Xinxiang was established, the time of drought occurrence in the future was orecasted. The testing results showed a good precision and were consistent well to the actuality. Therefore, this model could be used to predict the years of drought. It was indicated that the drough
t would take place in the period of 2012—2013, 2020—2021 and 2028—2029. |
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