| The factors effecting agricultural drought are complex, and exist greater randomness and fuzziness between the factors. The fuzzy linear information distribution method has been adopted in this study, to find out the probability estimate distribution function by the comprehensive drought index data series combined with the dryness degree index and effective precipitation index. Taken the Tiandong
County in Guangxi Province as for the example, carried out the agricultural drought risk assessment, compared with the assessment results obtained by the conventional probability statistics analysis method as continuous rainless days index. The research results shown that in the seasons of spring and autumn, the agricultural drought occured almost every year in Tiandong County, the middle or sev
ere drought may be occured once in every 3 to 5 years. The drought risk probability was 69.79% in winter, 72.78% in spring, 5.79% in summer and 80.50% in autumn, respectively. The conclusion is that: For agricultural drought risk assessment, the fuzzy information distribution method based on drought composite index is more efficient and reliable, which can reflect the actual situation of drought b
etter than the continuous rainless days index of conventional probability statistics analysis method. So it is an effective, simple and practical method. |