| The drought and flood circulation characteristics and forecast method in summer of Shaanxi Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2014.01.041 |
| Key Words: precipitation in summer circulation divided type similarity model Shaanxi Province |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the summer rainfall data at 76 Shaanxi stations, the precipitation characters were investigated with EOF method. It showed that there were two dominant precipitation modes in summer: A consistent pattern in whole province and a opposite pattern of northwest to southeast. It could be divided more detail of four distribution characteristics as consistent more in whole province, cons
istent less in whole province, more precipitation in northwest and less in southeast, less precipitation in northwest and more in southeast. A similar prediction model had been established based on good indication of the circulation patterns in January for the summer rainfall. The correlation coefficients of the January 500 hPa mean circulation with four patterns were calculated. The maximum correlation coefficient corresponding the rainfall pattern would be selected to be the forecast precipitation trend in summer. It was shown by the hindcasting results of the 50 years (1961—2010), the average anomaly sign consistency rate was 57%, the average anomaly sign consistency rate of four kinds of distribution was 70.4%, 71.3%, 58.5% and 44.9%, respectively. It had a specified predictive capability for the precipitation forecast and better predictive capability for more or less precipitation in whole Shaanxi Province. |
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